The UK's window to win the race for next-generation single-aisle
HRM Cap - enabling the UK's shot at one the world's most valuable supply chains for the next 30 years.
By Adrian Tayler, Head of Aerospace & Mark Bowering, Chief Engineer - Civil Aerostructures
It's not often you can point to a specific period and say - that's when the decision gets made. But in aerospace, it’s close - we’re likely looking between 2028 and 2030.
That's when Airbus is expected to lock in the configuration of its next-generation single-aisle aircraft - the successor to the A320 family that fills airports the world over.
The decisions made around that time will shape who builds what, which factories get the work, and which countries secure a place in one of the most valuable manufacturing supply chains on the planet for the next 30 years.
The UK has a genuine shot at being part of that picture. But the window is narrow, and the clock is already running.
The gap we need to close
Future aircraft will be built largely from composite materials - lightweight, strong, and critical to hitting the fuel efficiency and emissions targets the industry has committed to. The challenge isn't whether to use composites. That's settled. The challenge is making them fast enough – efficiently and at quality standards.
Next-generation platforms are forecast to demand production rates above 60 aircraft per month. The composite processes industry uses today max out at somewhere between 8 and 13. That's not a small gap to bridge - it's a fundamental manufacturing challenge, and solving it is exactly what NCC's HRMCap programme is designed to do.
HRMCap - High-Rate Manufacturing Capability - is a £15.7m investment, funded by the ATI, into capability that builds on the already world class equipment and facilities at NCC which are open access to all UK aerospace companies, as well as businesses operating in complementary sectors.
The emphasis on "open access" matters. This isn't a facility built for one customer or locked behind a single programme. It's infrastructure for the whole sector, designed to help UK manufacturers prove they can compete using cutting edge technology and novel processes at the rates the market will demand.
Building on what already works
The UK isn't starting from scratch. Programmes like Wing of Tomorrow, UltraFan, and eXtra Performance Wing have done serious, credible work to advance UK composites capability.
What they've also done is surface the gaps - the specific technology challenges that still need addressing before UK manufacturers can credibly compete for high-volume composite work.
HRMCap is the next step. It builds directly on that foundation, filling in what's missing and getting the UK's capability landscape to a place where it can support the next aircraft programme - not just contribute to the research, but win the manufacturing work.
The industrial support behind this programme reflects that ambition.
Airbus, Rolls-Royce, GKN, Northrop Grumman, Vertical Aerospace, Hamble Aerostructures and others have all put their names behind it. Companies of that scale don't write letters of support for programmes they don't believe in.
Bigger than aerospace
One of the things worth understanding about HRMCap is that its impact doesn't stop at the aircraft factory door.
In defence, the picture is just as compelling. GCAP, MBDA's future weapons programmes, the MoD's hypersonics framework, and the rapidly expanding drone sector all have a need for exactly the kind of advanced composite manufacturing capability that HRMCap is building.
The technologies involved open up manufacturing approaches that defence programmes have been waiting on.
What it adds up to
The HRMCap programme is focused on winning a greater share of the global market for the next-generation of single-aisle aircraft –the short-to-medium haul planes that dominate modern commercial aviation. Over the next 20 years, demand for new aircraft is expected to reach at least 43,000 units worldwide, with 34,000 of those being single-aisle. To keep pace, some production rates will need to scale dramatically from 56 per month in 2024 to 75 by 2027, and likely double that by 2050. That’s roughly 3 to 9 aircraft every single day. This kind of manufacturing volume is unprecedented in the industry.
These high production rates bring both opportunity and pressure. Greater volumes create more room to learn from other industries and apply best practices, while recent global supply chain disruptions have made it clear that relying on a single source for critical components is a significant risk. As a result, manufacturers and their customers are increasingly looking for dual or multi-sourcing options to improve resilience and maintain competitive choice.
The commercial prize is substantial. The single-aisle market is estimated to be worth over £1.9 trillion in 20 years, and gaining ground is strategic priority. The Aerospace Technology Institute (ATI) has set a target to grow the UK's share of the global aerospace market from 13% today to nearly 18% by 2050, and high rate manufacturing capability will be central to achieving it.
Why it has to be now
Aerospace supply chains are famously sticky. Get into a programme and you're typically there for its entire life. Miss the window and re-entry is slow, expensive, and uncertain.
The UK has the expertise, the facilities, and now the investment to make a credible case. HRMCap is how NCC demonstrates that readiness - not in a presentation, but in physical capability that OEMs can come and see and use.
The end of the decade isn't far away. The work starts now.
To find out more about HRMCap and how NCC can support your organisation, contact our experts.
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